For several months now, I and many others at BiggerPockets have been cautioning that the multifamily market is at severe risk of declining property values—even as the residential market proves resilient. But has a “correction” or perhaps even a “crash” materialized in the multifamily market? Let’s take a look.
The National Multifamily Market is in Bad Shape
As a brief primer, multifamily assets (along with many other commercial asset classes) are valued based on net operating income (NOI) and cap rates. When NOI increases, it puts upward pressure on values. In contrast, when cap rates rise, it puts downward pressure on values.
What we’ve seen on a national level over the course of 2023 are conditions that don’t look good for multifamily property values.
Rising cap rates
First, we have rising cap rates. Cap rates can rise for all sorts of reasons, as they are a function of investor sentiment, but the cost of capital, a glut of supply, and slowing rent growth are some of the main reasons cap rates have risen in recent months. According to CoStar, the average market cap rate has risen from 4.9% to 5.6% from Q2 2022 to Q2 of this year.
This may not sound like a lot, but it makes a big difference in valuation. As an example, take a property with a net operating income of $100,000. One year ago, the average market cap rate in the U.S. was 4.9%. This would give this fictional property a roughly $2.04M value ($100,000/.049). Fast forward one year and the average market cap rate in the U.S. is now 5.6%, making the property worth about $1.78M—a 13% decline in value in just one year.
Slowed growth
But cap rates are just one side of the equation here. If NOI were to grow, it could offset rising cap rates. Happily, for multifamily investors, rental income has grown year-over-year but at a much slower pace than has been seen in over a decade.
