Dave:
There’s a prominent theory originated by real economists, not just rogue YouTubers, that the real estate market runs in 18 year cycles and at the end of each cycle there’s a crash. And according to proponents of this theory, it accurately forecasted the 2008 crash. And now in 2026, exactly 18 years after 2008, the cycle is coming to an end yet again today on the market, we’re digging into the 18 year housing cycle theory and what, if anything, it can tell us about the future of real estate. Hey everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer, chief Investing Officer at BiggerPockets. I’m also an investor and analyst, and these days I find myself a housing market theory fact checker, and today I’m digging into a theory about real estate markets that has existed for almost a century and according to proponents accurately called the last two real estate downturns in 2008 and previously in 1990, the theory is called the 18 year housing cycle, and it is true that one of the big proponents of the theory, Fred Harrison, a British economist, actually called the 2008 housing crash in 1997, a full 11 years before it happened.
So naturally, because of that accurate prediction and some economic research into the topic, people are rightfully wondering if we’re about to see the big decline at the end of this cycle. After all, it is now exactly 18 years after 2008, and there are some very famous, very popular YouTubers, people on the internet who talk about economics and housing, and they’re pointing to this data to support their forecast about housing market activity in the coming years, most notably saying that we’re due for a crash. And it’s not just people on YouTube. Even the Cato Institute talks about this, and I saw it actually being discussed on a Harvard University website. This theory has some legs. So today on the show, we’re digging into the 18 year housing market theory and breaking down what it can and cannot teach us because spoiler…