Like most of Boston metro’s core neighborhoods, Somerville’s apartment rental market has been on a roller coaster ride since COVID began. Last year in October, when campuses were empty and professionals left the rental market in droves, we reported on the 247% increase in the vacancy rate for Somerville apartments compared to October 2019. We’re happy to report that figure has come back down to Earth, settling close to its pre pandemic level. However, the most recent rental data in Somerville suggests that shifts in renter demand towards the city may be slowing Somerville’s recovery from the pandemic.
Somerville Apartment Supply YOY vs. Pre-COVID
Somerville’s current apartment real-time vacancy rate (RTVR) is 1.32%, while its real-time availability rate (RTAR) is 1.97%. That may sound great at face value because it is, especially when you consider that these figures have dropped by -59.55% and -65.71% respectively since December 2020. However, when you compare Somerville’s current apartment supply to December 2019, before the pandemic, it paints a different picture.
| Area | December 2021 | December 2020 | % Change | December 2019 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somerville RTAR | 1.97% | 4.87% | -59.55% | 1.28% | +53.19% |
| Somerville RTVR | 1.32% | 3.85% | -65.71% | 1.03% | +28.16% |
Somerville’s apartment RTAR is up +53.91% since December 2019. That is the 3rd largest increase in RTAR out of the 32 neighborhoods closest to Boston behind only Revere (+105.45%) and Lower Allston (+211.76%). The vacancy rate in Somerville is also +28.15% higher than it was 2 years ago, the 6th largest increase in RTVR.
Medford, Cambridge, Jamaica Plain, and Dorchester have all recorded similar increases in apartment supply and vacancy numbers compared to their pre-COVID levels. For contrast, the 4 neighborhoods that have seen the biggest decrease in RTVR compared to December 2019 are Mission Hill (-97.74%), Fenway (-88.51%), Back Bay (-84.78%), and South End (-70.00%).
So from this data it would seem demand has moved away from some of the outer…