Although having a robust college presence is a massive benefit for its parent city, other metrics should be considered when analyzing long-term real estate investment potential.
In the 1980s, many of the Rust Belt cities in the Midwest suffered a huge economic decline when the steel mills closed down. In Pittsburgh, for example, home to notable universities such as Carnegie Mellon, the University of Pittsburgh, Duquesne, and others, 75% of the steel industry closed, causing 153,000 workers to lose their jobs in the mid-1980s and the city to lose 8% of its population throughout the decade. The result was devastating to Pittsburgh’s economy.
A vibrant city should have a broad spectrum of businesses and industries, so if one significant employer moves out, it should still be able to survive and thrive. Looking at college towns with a long-term view to investing, many of the metrics point to the same data we have seen since the pandemic: Generally expensive states such as New York and California are losing population to the Sun Belt, where the cost of living is lower fueled by lower taxes and house prices—not to mention less heating costs.
Although the decline appears to have slowed in 2023, possibly due to more workers recalled to on-site employment, overall the North is losing while the South is gaining population. According to the U.S. Census, four Southern states—Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia—accounted for 93% of the nation’s population growth in 2022 and 67% in 2023.
Many of the people who moved south are not returning north. The lure of more jobs, lower taxes, and cheaper land has also caused many companies to locate their headquarters in the South, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and other manufacturing sectors.
Thus, it’s hardly surprising that three of the top four college markets with the most significant growth potential are in Texas, and nine out of the top 10 are in…