But for the first time in the pandemic’s history, the variants that make up the mounting wave look drastically different, depending on where you are in the world.
In England, Omicron spawn BA.5.2 is the most prevalent variant, with a long list of competitors relatives vying for dominance. In the U.S., once globally dominant BA.5 is still leading the way. But it’s steadily decreasing as BA.4.6—dubbed “Aeterna” by some on the Twitterverse—rises, with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 on its heels. And in Singapore, cases of XBB, or “Gryphon”—a combination of two Omicron variants that can evade immunity and antibody treatments—are surging.
Scientists are watching a quickly growing menagerie of Omicron offspring struggling to rise to the top in different parts of the world right now—a scenario top experts tell Fortune is “unprecedented.” The competing variants all feature concerning traits like improved immune evasion, increased transmissibility, or both.
As each spawns its own new strains in exponential fashion, experts say that the pandemic is at a crossroads—the virus could morph into something more akin to the generally predictable and mild flu, or spiral even further out of the reach of science and its lagging vaccines.
“There have been times when different variants were on the move in different parts of the world, like the Gamma variant in South America, and Beta in South Africa,” Dr. Eric Topol is a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told Fortune.
“But this is different because now we have variants with extreme levels of immune evasion, and in any given country, potentially a few that could be in play at the same time.”
How did we get here?
It wasn’t so long ago that any COVID variant that hit the U.K. was headed to the U.S. in a few short weeks, making it relatively easy to forecast virus conditions in the near…