Lawrence Yun said home prices will rise 1 percent and sales will dip 7 percent next year before recovering in 2024, in contrast to a Fannie Mae forecast last month that predicted falling prices in 2023.
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Home prices will rise slightly and sales will dip next year before making a comeback in 2024, according to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist.
Yun spoke Friday at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum of NAR’s annual conference, newly rebranded as NAR NXT, in Orlando. The forum is consistently the event’s most heavily-attended session, NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith noted as she introduced Yun, whom she called “the best chief economist in the world,” prompting cheers from the audience.
At the forum, Yun predicted that 2022 would end with home sales down 15 percent year over year and further decline 7 percent in 2023 before rising 10 percent in 2024.
He also forecast that home prices in 2022 would be up 10 percent year over year, increase a slight 1 percent in 2023 and then jump 5 percent in 2024.
That means a “strong rebound” in 2024, according to Yun.
“The prices will be mostly stable across the country [in 2023], meaning that half of the country will see minor price gains, the other half of the country will see minor price declines,” Yun told attendees, noting that some specific markets such as San Francisco may see a bigger price decline than 2 percent.
“Then in 2024, you have to say population, demography, [the] long-term path looks bright, therefore just hang in there for this year’s difficulty and maybe next year’s still under transition, but after that everything should be in a better situation.”
Source: NAR
The forecasts assume that