Dave:
The US is on the brink of a recession, or at least that’s what one major bank is saying. According to another one, though the risk is mild and it’s actually going down. So which one is it? Is the economy really faltering and at risk of serious declines or is growth going to continue and does any of this even actually matter to real estate investors? Today we’re going to dive into this and discuss why the traditional ways of measuring recessions is failing to provide ordinary Americans and the real estate investing community with the information it needs, and I’ll even share with you a brand new indicator that I’ve developed to help us make sense of how the economy is really performing.
Hey everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I’m Dave Meyer. Thank you all so much for joining us today. Today we’re going to talk about recessions. Are we in a recession? Are we going to be in a recession? Because it feels like this question has been on everyone’s mind for like five straight years. It seems like it’s never not in the media. There is always a headline about this. In today’s day and age and recently I’ve been seeing completely opposite reads about what’s going on in the economy. There’s recently a study by UBS, one of the biggest banks in the entire world that said the probability of the US going into a recession is 93% right now, that’s pretty high. Meanwhile, chase the biggest bank in the United States says it’s only 40%. So what gives here? How can two banks, they’ve got the same data, how can they have such different conclusions about what’s going on in the economy?
And I should mention, it’s not just these two banks. Everyone is all over the board. Really smart people have totally different opinions on what’s going to happen. Some people are saying AI is going to destroy the labor market. Others say it’s going to lead to a massive boom in the economy. Some people think tariffs are going to lead to domestic job growth….