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A worst-quake scenario
The Cascadia subduction zone might not be on the minds of most Californians, but it was for more than a dozen geologists and other scientists in a recent study analyzing flood risks along the Pacific coast.
Sea-level rise is the typical focus of such studies, but the authors focused on another hazard that experts say is a matter of when, not if: a megaquake.
According to the study, when the next magnitude 8-plus temblor occurs along the Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from Northern California up to Canada’s Vancouver Island, it could cause sudden subsidence (aka land sinking) of 1.6 to 6.6 feet, dramatically heightening flood risk.
“Earthquake deformation modeling and geospatial analysis show that [land sinking] from a great earthquake at Cascadia today could double the flood exposure of residents, structures, and roads,” the authors wrote.
This map shows the location of the Cascadia subduction zone.
(FEMA)
The study, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that the worst-case quake scenario would expand the area at risk of flooding by 116 square miles. That’s 2½ times the size of San Francisco, The Times’ expert earthquake reporter Rong-Gong Lin II noted in his coverage this week.
“Traditionally, scientists and government officials have focused on climate-change-driven sea-level rise to calculate the projected increased risk of coastal flooding,” Ron explained, “But the study argues that neglecting the role of major earthquakes would be shortsighted.”
Some parts of the Pacific coastline are…