Following the latest round of tariffs, it’s only a matter of time before the other economic shoe drops, according to one investor who predicted the 2008 stock-market crash.
Danny Moses, the founder of Moses Ventures who was made famous by the book-turned-movie “The Big Short,” warned that despite some strong economic indicators in the face of tariff uncertainty, signs of stagflation are already upon us.
“There’s just so many moving parts right now that it’s really hard to decipher where you’re going to pinpoint,” Moses told Fortune. “Anyone can find a data point that says it’s inflationary, and someone can find a data point that says it’s not. So it’s just difficult. But bottom line… Is the [economy] going through a stagflationary period? It appears to me, it is.”
President Donald Trump announced on Friday a new round of sweeping tariffs, including a 39% tax on Swiss exports and 35% tax on some Canadian exports to the U.S. The administration is extending the trade-deal deadline to other countries including Mexico, America’s largest trade partner, which is getting an extra 90 days. The logic behind the tariffs differs slightly from previous rounds, where Trump has argued the need for levies as a means to eliminate trade deficits. The U.S. for example, has had a trade surplus with Brazil for about a decade. Instead, Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Brazil for political reasons, such as the prosecution of ally and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was accused of plotting a coup following his loss of the presidential election.
Markets dipped after the announcement—as well as a weaker-than-expected jobs report— following a week-long rally of strong earnings and fading trade-war fears. But Moses said the latest round of tariffs have once again stirred anxiety about the economy’s future, making investors “a little bit more concerned about the unpredictability of what’s coming out.”
“Nobody knows how…