Key Takeaways
- House prices are unlikely to go down on a national level, but they should grow more slowly.
- It’s normal for house prices to steadily rise over time—it’s actually abnormal when they fall and can signal a broader economic issue, like a recession or correction.
- Home prices surged during the pandemic as buyers took advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates, leaving prices elevated today.
- In a few Sun Belt cities like Austin and Nashville, prices are falling after the pandemic boom left them inflated.
It’s no secret that housing today is expensive. Home prices are nearly 50% higher than they were in 2020, while mortgage rates have almost doubled. A shortage of inventory, spike in inflation, and a surge in demand during the pandemic were the leading reasons, pricing many consumers out.
Thankfully, the housing market has begun leveling out, and economists say that affordability will improve over the next few years. House prices are unlikely to fall, but they should grow more slowly, helping wages catch up.
So, if you’re a homebuyer stuck on the sidelines wondering if house prices will ever go down, this article is for you. We’ll break down why prices are most likely not going to fall, why most economists believe affordability will still improve, and what buyers and sellers can do to win today.
From Redfin’s Chief Economist
“House prices aren’t going to fall on a national scale any time soon—and that’s actually a good thing. It’s normal for house prices to rise gradually over time, just as a mild inflation rate is healthy for most economies. The difference is when prices jump all at once like they did during the pandemic housing boom, which sidelined most buyers and sellers. Now, though, affordability is starting to increase because wages have been increasing faster than housing costs since late 2025. We expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.” – Daryl Fairweather, Redfin Chief Economist