This article is presented by Connect Invest.
U.S. commercial real estate is under mounting pressure as vacancy rates hit record highs—first in offices, and now creeping into multifamily and industrial properties. A decade of cheap capital and aggressive development has caught up to landlords facing slower rent growth, higher refinancing costs, and rising delinquencies across several sectors. Moreover, both commercial and residential real estate is undergoing profound changes as large metro areas cease to be automatically attractive as job destinations.
Why are multifamily markets turning risky, and what strategic changes can investors make to mitigate the risks and protect their margins?
Warning Signs for Commercial Real Estate
According to CBRE, total investment volume is still expected to rise roughly 10% this year to $437 billion, but much of that activity is concentrated in distressed sales and recapitalizations. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that delinquencies ticked up across lodging and industrial assets in Q1 2025, signaling stress that could spill into housing credit next.
The market segment that is most obviously ailing is the commercial office segment. According to a press release from Moody’s Analytics, the vacancy problem faced by the office real estate market is severe enough to signal a “structural disruption rather than a temporary downturn for the multitrillion-dollar sector.”
Office vacancy rates in major commercial hubs, notably San Francisco and NYC, have reached unprecedented levels (27.7% and 23%, respectively) as of the second quarter of 2025, according to recent Moody’s data. The pre-pandemic vacancy rate in San Francisco was just 8.6%.
The decline of office space…