What’s the prognosis for bird flu in 2026?


As 2024 came to an end, bird flu dominated headlines. The virus, technically known as avian influenza, was being detected in raw milk, dairy farms and even children, my colleagues Susanne Rust and Melissa Gomez reported.

After federal officials confirmed the severe case of a Louisiana patient, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in California and pushed to fortify the state’s response to bird flu.

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In January 2025, the flu took that Louisiana patient’s life. The individual was older than 65, had preexisting health conditions and had had contact with sick and dead birds. But still, headlines wondered if it meant a new epidemic was coming.

And then the headlines slowed, and big stories like wildfires and Donald Trump’s new presidency pushed bird flu out of the public conscience. So what ended up happening with it?

The bird flu recently made a startling reappearance

The World Health Organization in November was alerted to the 71st human case of bird flu in the United States, but the first since February 2025.

The Washington state resident died later that month. Health officials in Washington did not release the patient’s name but shared that they were considered “older,” had underlying health conditions and had had contact with live infected poultry in their backyard, my colleague Susanne reported at the time.

The human cases earlier in 2025 tended to be the H5N1 strain of the virus. But November’s case was the first recorded incident of a person contracting the H5N5 strain. As the virus spreads and mutates, experts worry human-to-human transmission could become a problem.

The head of France’s Institut Pasteur respiratory infections center recently said that if the bird flu were to gain…